Nickel Belt to change colours in 2025

According to polls, Marc Serré's odds of winning have now dropped below 1%.

According to the popular polling aggregator website, 338 Canada, this region will almost certainly have a new representative by next year.

The next federal elections will happen between now and October 20th, 2025. Across the country, poll numbers have indicated that the Liberals are seeing declines in popularity and nowhere is seeing this drop more than in Northern Ontario.

The riding of Sudbury East - Manitoulin - Nickel Belt which Marc Serré has represented since 2016 has been a Liberal stronghold for decades. Since the riding was formed in 1953, the Conservatives have never won an election. But it appears that will change shortly.

338 Canada amalgamates all national polls and provides overall polling averages. The website founded by the longtime national columnist Philippe J. Fournier, also provides detailed odds predictions for every riding in the country.

For Nickel Belt, the news is grim for Serré. While the Liberals odds of winning Nickel Belt have slowly dropped over the last two years (hovering over 1%), the latest models have now put their odds at below 1%.

The NPD currently have a 7% chance of winning in 2025 while the local Conservatives have a 93% chance (this is actually down from 96% last month).

Nationally, the latest polls unanimously indicate a Conservative majority in 2025 seeing them win well over 200 seats (they currently have 119). The polls indicate that the Liberals may lose over 100 seats (they currently have 153).

Gun Rights, Carbon Tax, Affordability and Indigenous Claims

One of the issues that has gotten Northerners most riled up over the last few years has been the controversial bill C-21 which added restrictions gun owners in Canada. Many criticized Marc Serré for his refusal to stand in support of lawful firearm owners and hunters. While appearing to push back on some aspects of the bill in 2023, Serré ultimately voted with his party to support the law.

Affordability and the carbon tax are another matter of contention across the country. Northerners are particularly feeling the cost of the growing carbon tax because they pay for it at the pump and on their home heating bills.

Finally, while indigenous identity may have helped Serré secure this riding in 2016, his questionable claims may come back to haunt him in 2025. After being elected in 2016 as an Algonquin MP, Serré led the National Indigenous caucus. But this year, Serré was booted from the Algonquin of Ontario due to his lack of adequate ancestry. He has since come under pressure from academics and first nation leaders to apologize and renounce this false claim from his resume. But Serré has so far refused while recently claiming that he no longer Algonquin, but “Métis”.

While the Conservatives appear to be the favourite to finally win this riding, the party still does not have a declared candidate. Charles Humphrey who ran for the party in 2021 has announced that he is not doing so in 2025 and the local riding association has not declared any nomination contest yet. So far, only one individual, Himal Hossain is seeking this nomination.

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